The Ripple Effect: How Middle East Shipping Disruption Is Working Its Way Through UK Supply Chains

More than half of UK exporters say they have been affected by shipping disruption in the Red Sea. What began as a security crisis in a contested stretch of water has since become one of the most significant tests of global supply chain resilience in recent memory. 

Since November 2023, Houthi attacks on Red Sea and Gulf of Aden shipping have driven freight and insurance costs sharply higher, with the majority of vessels now rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope. 

Government figures from the Department for Transport confirm that around 85% of UK international freight by weight and 55% by value is moved by sea, which means any prolonged disruption to major maritime corridors carries major consequences for British businesses. 

“The instinct is to treat something like this as a temporary problem that will correct itself once the situation changes,” says Richard Gray, Chief Operations and Commercial Officer at Cleveland Containers, part of the Cleveland Group. “But supply chains do not snap back overnight. When major global shipping routes are disrupted at this scale, the knock-on effects can run for months or years after the immediate cause is resolved.”

Here, Cleveland Containers, a leading supplier of shipping containers, explains what UK businesses need to understand about the lasting impact of this disruption.

What Rerouting Around Africa Means in Pounds and Days

Ships choosing to avoid the Suez Canal and take the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope add seven to ten days to their transit times, at an additional cost of approximately $1 million per voyage. Emergency surcharges of between $500 and $1,500 per container have been imposed by major carriers including Maersk and ZIM, with those costs working their way through supply chains from raw materials to finished goods. 

As well as the issue of delays, when ships take longer routes, the same vessels are in circulation for extended periods, reducing the overall capacity available to global trade. Available shipping capacity was estimated to be down between 15% and 20% in the second quarter of 2024 as a result of extended voyages, creating port congestion, equipment shortages, and knock-on delays across supply chains. 

“Businesses often calculate the cost of disruption in terms of the direct shipping increase,” says Gray. “What they tend to underestimate is what happens when the ripple reaches their own operation. A delayed shipment of materials can stall a project, push back a production run, or leave a client short. That’s where the commercial damage accumulates.”

Why Construction Feels Disruption Faster Than Most

The construction sector is among those most exposed to shipping disruption. Government data shows that 60.2% of UK construction material imports came from the EU, highlighting how delays or restrictions affecting major trade routes can quickly feed into project costs, delivery schedules, and material availability.

For contractors and developers managing tight programme commitments, a delay in structural steel, insulation board, or specialist fixings arriving from overseas can trigger a chain of downstream cost implications. When materials are late, labour may be standing idle, plant hire continues to accrue, and subcontractor schedules are disrupted. The financial exposure from a single delayed shipment can far exceed the value of the materials themselves.

“Construction operates on programmes,” says Gray. “When materials are late, everything else moves. Most contracts carry penalty clauses, and most subcontractors carry their own costs. The exposure adds up quickly, and procurement teams may not be building in enough contingency for what is now a genuinely volatile shipping environment.”

The Effects That Will Outlast the Conflict

Industry assessments suggest the Red Sea crisis will carry on throughout 2026, with carrier risk aversion remaining high even during lulls in attacks, because insurance markets continue to price in elevated premiums and shipping companies have adapted to the longer route as a de facto standard. 

Even if the geopolitical situation stabilises, the structural effects on global shipping will take time to unwind. For example, Port infrastructure that has absorbed months of rerouted traffic will not clear instantly. Also, shipping schedules that have been reconfigured around the Cape of Good Hope will not revert to normal in weeks. No one knows how long it will take for the effects of Red Sea shipping disruptions to ease, or how long a return to normal operations could realistically take. 

“The businesses that will come out of this best are the ones that stopped waiting for things to normalise and started planning around the new reality,” explains Gray. “That means reviewing lead times, reassessing supplier geography, and thinking seriously about how much stock they can absorb on site if a shipment is late.”

How Businesses are Building Flexibility into Their Operations

Businesses are increasingly investing in measures designed to improve supply chain resilience, including diversifying sourcing strategies, nearshoring production where feasible, and adopting digital tools to improve visibility across supply networks. Storage is also becoming a more important consideration, with some businesses exploring more flexible, on-site options that allow them to hold additional stock without committing to long-term infrastructure investment. 

For construction firms in particular, the ability to receive and secure materials on site ahead of scheduled installation windows, reduces their vulnerability. Having adequate, secure storage capacity available means a delayed shipment becomes an inconvenience to manage rather than a programme-critical failure.

“Resilience is not a theoretical exercise,” adds Gray. “It is about having enough flexibility in your operation that when something goes wrong upstream, you are not immediately at the mercy of it. The businesses that are navigating this period well are the ones that built that flexibility in before they needed it.”

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